ScoutIndex

2026 · Week 4

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Oct 4, 2026 · Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · grass

NENE

29

Final
BUFBUF

26

Pregame win probability

NE 33%proj. BUF by 5.067% BUF

Recap

New England Patriots held off Buffalo Bills 29–26. ScoutIndex's model didn't see it coming, giving Patriots only a 33% shot beforehand. Patriots improve to 2-2; Bills fall to 3-1. Drake Maye paced the offense with 269 passing yards and 3 TDs; 54 rushing yards.

Team stats

NEBUF
25First downs15
412Total yards344
269Passing yards253
143Rushing yards91
22/37Comp / Att23/33
1Turnovers2
1Sacks taken1

Scoring & key plays

  1. Q1(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].
  2. Q18-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. Q2(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q216-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
  5. Q2(8:21) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 27 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], touched at NE 31, RECOVERED by BUF-24-C.Bishop at NE 27. 24-C.Bishop for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 86-E.Chism (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau].
  6. Q2(5:41) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game.
  7. Q28-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
  8. Q2(1:03) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  9. Q216-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
  10. Q2(:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
  11. Q3(8:18) 74-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  12. Q38-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
  13. Q4(11:11) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
  14. Q4(4:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  15. Q4(1:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Box score

NE

Passing

PlayerC/AYdsTDINT
Drake Maye22/3726931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsTD
Drake Maye8540
Rhamondre Stevenson13471
TreVeyon Henderson14420

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry55620
Romeo Doubs69582
Mack Hollins34530
Rhamondre Stevenson35270
TreVeyon Henderson0200
Efton Chism III24421
DeMario Douglas23150
Eli Raridon12120
Kyle Williams0200

BUF

Passing

PlayerC/AYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3325311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsTD
Josh Allen541
James Cook12751
DJ Moore160
Ty Johnson130
Ray Davis130

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keon Coleman671161
Khalil Shakir78820
James Cook2280
Dawson Knox22130
DJ Moore12110
Ty Johnson2290
Dalton Kincaid1270
Ray Davis1140
Josh Palmer1430

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