Predictions
2026 playoff picture
Monte-Carlo simulation of the full season from ScoutIndex Elo ratings. Methodology →
AFC — projected
| # | Team | Div | Proj W | Playoffs | Win div | #1 seed | Super Bowl | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUFBuffalo Bills | East | 11.8 | 92% | 64% | 28% | 25% | 14% |
| 2 | KCKansas City Chiefs | West | 11.5 | 92% | 65% | 26% | 16% | 7% |
| 3 | JAXJacksonville Jaguars | South | 10.8 | 87% | 79% | 11% | 15% | 7% |
| 4 | NENew England Patriots | East | 10.5 | 81% | 36% | 11% | 14% | 7% |
| 5 | DENDenver Broncos | West | 10.7 | 79% | 32% | 11% | 12% | 6% |
| 6 | BALBaltimore Ravens | North | 9.9 | 59% | 30% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| 7 | PITPittsburgh Steelers | North | 9.8 | 57% | 28% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| 8 | CINCincinnati Bengals | North | 9.5 | 51% | 22% | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| 9 | CLECleveland Browns | North | 9.3 | 48% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 10 | HOUHouston Texans | South | 8.2 | 30% | 16% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 | LVLas Vegas Raiders | West | 7.6 | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 | INDIndianapolis Colts | South | 6.8 | 8% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 | NYJNew York Jets | East | 6.2 | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 | TENTennessee Titans | South | 4.7 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 | MIAMiami Dolphins | East | 4.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 | LACLos Angeles Chargers | West | 4.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Line = projected playoff cut (top 7).
NFC — projected
| # | Team | Div | Proj W | Playoffs | Win div | #1 seed | Super Bowl | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SFSan Francisco 49ers | West | 13.2 | 100% | 91% | 59% | 39% | 23% |
| 2 | MINMinnesota Vikings | North | 12.3 | 97% | 72% | 31% | 26% | 14% |
| 3 | SEASeattle Seahawks | West | 9.9 | 74% | 8% | 3% | 13% | 7% |
| 4 | CARCarolina Panthers | South | 9.0 | 68% | 65% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| 5 | DETDetroit Lions | North | 9.6 | 61% | 12% | 2% | 5% | 2% |
| 6 | CHIChicago Bears | North | 9.7 | 60% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 2% |
| 7 | GBGreen Bay Packers | North | 9.5 | 58% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 8 | NYGNew York Giants | East | 7.6 | 47% | 44% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 9 | PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | East | 7.5 | 33% | 30% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 10 | LARLos Angeles Rams | West | 7.9 | 22% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 11 | DALDallas Cowboys | East | 6.9 | 20% | 17% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 | ATLAtlanta Falcons | South | 7.0 | 19% | 14% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 13 | NONew Orleans Saints | South | 7.0 | 18% | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 | WASWashington Commanders | East | 5.7 | 11% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 | TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | South | 5.8 | 8% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 | ARIArizona Cardinals | West | 6.5 | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Line = projected playoff cut (top 7).