Predictions
2026 playoff picture
Monte-Carlo simulation of the full season from ScoutIndex Elo ratings. Methodology →
AFC — projected
| # | Team | Div | Proj W | Playoffs | Win div | #1 seed | Super Bowl | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOUHouston Texans | South | 10.2 | 76% | 50% | 17% | 17% | 9% |
| 2 | DENDenver Broncos | West | 10.0 | 74% | 55% | 16% | 17% | 9% |
| 3 | BUFBuffalo Bills | East | 9.8 | 69% | 44% | 13% | 15% | 8% |
| 4 | NENew England Patriots | East | 9.7 | 68% | 42% | 12% | 14% | 7% |
| 5 | JAXJacksonville Jaguars | South | 9.5 | 64% | 34% | 11% | 10% | 5% |
| 6 | BALBaltimore Ravens | North | 9.2 | 58% | 38% | 8% | 7% | 3% |
| 7 | LACLos Angeles Chargers | West | 8.6 | 47% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
| 8 | PITPittsburgh Steelers | North | 8.6 | 47% | 27% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| 9 | CINCincinnati Bengals | North | 8.4 | 41% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 | KCKansas City Chiefs | West | 8.1 | 36% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 11 | INDIndianapolis Colts | South | 8.1 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 | CLECleveland Browns | North | 7.7 | 28% | 13% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 13 | MIAMiami Dolphins | East | 7.6 | 26% | 10% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 14 | TENTennessee Titans | South | 6.5 | 12% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 | NYJNew York Jets | East | 6.3 | 10% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 | LVLas Vegas Raiders | West | 6.1 | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Line = projected playoff cut (top 7).
NFC — projected
| # | Team | Div | Proj W | Playoffs | Win div | #1 seed | Super Bowl | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEASeattle Seahawks | West | 11.1 | 84% | 53% | 30% | 32% | 20% |
| 2 | LARLos Angeles Rams | West | 10.0 | 67% | 28% | 14% | 14% | 7% |
| 3 | PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | East | 9.4 | 62% | 49% | 9% | 9% | 4% |
| 4 | DETDetroit Lions | North | 9.5 | 59% | 33% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| 5 | MINMinnesota Vikings | North | 9.3 | 54% | 29% | 7% | 7% | 3% |
| 6 | SFSan Francisco 49ers | West | 9.2 | 53% | 17% | 8% | 7% | 3% |
| 7 | CHIChicago Bears | North | 8.7 | 42% | 20% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| 8 | GBGreen Bay Packers | North | 8.7 | 42% | 19% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 9 | TBTampa Bay Buccaneers | South | 8.3 | 42% | 30% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 10 | ATLAtlanta Falcons | South | 8.3 | 42% | 30% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| 11 | NONew Orleans Saints | South | 8.1 | 35% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 12 | WASWashington Commanders | East | 7.8 | 31% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 13 | DALDallas Cowboys | East | 7.8 | 29% | 18% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 14 | CARCarolina Panthers | South | 7.4 | 24% | 16% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 15 | NYGNew York Giants | East | 7.4 | 24% | 14% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 16 | ARIArizona Cardinals | West | 6.6 | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Line = projected playoff cut (top 7).